2019_CBR_PaynesCave

Issued
Issued at: 6 PM THU OCT 24 2019

Changes to the Previous Forecast
No major changes.

Discussion
The forecast is remaining pretty much on track. The formation of a tropical disturbance in the western Gulf is forecast to stay west of Paynes Creek until after the race. However pieces of energy will be breaking off of the disturbance and moving across Georgia/western South Carolina through Saturday. Models are in pretty close agreement on timing, however some differences are still seen on Saturday. A few showers could move into the Paynes area late tonight. As we progress through the day Friday, showers will become more numerous, especially during the afternoon. This will continue into the evening, then diminish after midnight. Another piece of energy moves across north Georgia/upstate South Carolina Saturday. This is where timing differences occur, however even with the timing differences, they do agree in bringing any kind of measurable precipitation to the area Saturday afternoon. I’m not seeing anything that would suggest thunderstorms so I have removed thunder from the forecast. Due to the disturbance moving out of the gulf, and a nose of high pressure that will be over the area, we will be in a wedge type environment on Saturday with easterly winds around 10 mph (can’t rule out a few higher gusts), and cool conditions.

Confidence
Medium to high.